PRC Pulls Ahead in Quantum Communications Security

Executive Summary:

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) currently leads in the application of quantum technologies, especially secure communications network infrastructure, while the United States remains stronger in foundational research breakthroughs.
Even where a U.S. lead remains, the PRC has rapidly closed the gap in the last several years, based on a “scorecard” for assessing relative progress in quantum technologies across foundational technologies, applications, and broader technology and financial ecosystems.
The Chinese Communist Party sees quantum technologies as having “immeasurable strategic significance” and is directing resources toward their development to help reduce technological bottlenecks.

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) ascribes enormous strategic potential to quantum technologies. An article by the editorial board in the latest issue of its flagship theory journal, Qiushi, describes quantum as having “immeasurable strategic significance for … promoting the leapfrog development of industries” (对于 … 推动产业跨越式发展具有不可估量的战略意义). Underscoring the Party’s competitive—and even existential—framing for gaining an advantage in these technologies, the article describes quantum as a technology that can help “fundamentally solve problems such as being ‘strangled’ by technological bottlenecks (从根本上解决“卡脖子”等问题) (Qiushi, May 31).

Measuring progress in quantum technologies within the People’s Republic of China (PRC) relative to that of the United States is fraught. State media constantly touts breakthroughs and developments in dramatic terms. [1] A comparative look at advances in the key constituent elements that underpin quantum technologies establishes that the United States leads where it matters most for near-term computing capability, while the PRC leads in near-term communications security. In almost all areas where the United States has the advantage, however, the PRC is rapidly closing the gap. Its advance is based on a decade-long effort of policy attention and support, as the author has documented previously (China Brief, May 15).

The Strategic Scorecard

The best way to assess the current state of play in the U.S.–PRC quantum race is to track a small set of measurable benchmarks. Table 1 below presents a scorecard to measure progress as of April 2026. It focuses on 11 metrics divided into three areas: the level of development in foundational quantum technologies, the extent of practical applications of quantum technologies, and the maturity of the broader ecosystem for quantum technologies.

The scorecard, as illustrated in Figure 1, shows that the race is currently very close. The United States leads on four of the 11 metrics, but the PRC leads on five (they are effectively tied on the other two). These 11 metrics are not all evenly weighted, however, and the two countries’ strengths indicate a divergence in focus. The PRC leads in applying quantum technologies, especially secure communications network infrastructure, while U.S. strengths are evident in foundational research breakthroughs.

One leading indicator of eventual capability (included in the scorecard) is “quantum advantage.” This refers to a quantum computer’s superiority over any classical machine. Two PRC hardware platforms have produced world-record results in the past year on this dimension: the superconducting Zuchongzhi 3.0 processor and the photonic Jiuzhang 4.0 (Liu et al., 2025). The latter result is striking, claiming to have performed a function that would take a classical machine an estimated 10⁴² years, 17 orders of magnitude beyond Google’s Willow. Although these measurements are not set in stone (simulation methods continue to be refined, meaning that advantages claimed tend to be retroactively narrowed), the disparity indicates the strength of the PRC quantum sector.

Table 1: Comparison of Current U.S. and PRC Progress Across Quantum Benchmarks

	Metric	U.S. Best	PRC Best	Leader	Trend
Foundational Technology	Qubit Scale (superconducting)	IBM 1,121q (2023); Nighthawk 120q perf. (2025)	ZC-3.2: 107q (Dec 2025)	Unites States (scale)	Stable
	Gate Accuracy (two-qubit, simultaneous)	99.88% (Google Willow, 2024)	99.62% (ZC-3.0, 2025)	United States	PRC closing in
	Error Correction (below-threshold)	Crossed Dec 2024 (Λ ≈ 2.91)	Crossed Dec 2025 (Λ = 1.40)	United States (first; higher Λ)	PRC now crossing threshold
	Qubit Stability (coherence time)	~68 µs (Google Willow)	~72 µs (ZC-3.0)	Effectively tied	Symmetric
	Photonic Computing (particle count)	216 photons (Xanadu, 2023)	3,050 photons (Jiuzhang 4.0, 2025)	PRC	PRC widening fast
	Best Advantage (classical sim. time)	10²⁵ years (Willow, 2024)	10⁴² years (Jiuzhang 4.0, 2025)	PRC (photonic)	PRC extending
Applications	Quantum-Secured Network Coverage	Lab-scale only (<100 km)	10,000+ km backbone; major cities connected	PRC	Structural lead
	Satellite Quantum Communication	None operational	Micius 7,600 km; Jinan-1 12,900 km	PRC	Extending
	Device-Independent QKD (tamper-proof)	Not yet demonstrated	100 km fiber (Pan group, Feb 2026)	PRC	New PRC milestone
Ecosystem	Software & Cloud Ecosystem	IBM Qiskit; Google Cirq; broad open-source	Origin Cloud; Tianyan; Baidu Paddle	United States	PRC growing
Ecosystem	Private Investment (pace, 2026)	~$3.5B cumulative (est. through 2024)	CNY 11.2B cumulative; CNY 2.2B in Q1 2026 alone	Competitive	PRC accelerating

Source: Nature; Physical Review Letters; Chinese Academy of Sciences; arXiv:2508.09092; company announcements; author’s compilation.

Three Properties and One Solution that Define the Race

The metrics above were selected based on three underlying properties that are critical to quantum computing and communications: superposition, entanglement, and interference. Understanding these properties is important for contextualizing the state of the current quantum competition.

Superposition

The qubit, or quantum bit, is the basic unit of information in quantum computing. Unlike a bit—the equivalent unit in classical computing—which is capable of existing in either one of two states (0 or 1), a qubit is capable of existing in both states at the same time. This is what is known as quantum superposition. Superposition allows for a dramatic scaling up in processing as it enables multiple possible solutions to computational problems to be explored at once rather than sequentially. The time a qubit spends in a state of superposition is known as “coherence time.” A longer coherence time allows for more complex computation.

Limiting factors for qubit performance include exposure to heat, vibrations, or electromagnetic noise, which can cause qubits to collapse into a singular position. This makes progress in developing effective superconducting processors an important requirement for quantum computing. Following substantial progress in the last two years, the United States and the PRC are now effectively tied on this dimension of the quantum race.

Entanglement

Entanglement is the property that makes quantum communication uniquely secure. When two particles become entangled, they are correlated in a way that cannot be explained by classical physics. One practical upshot of this is that measuring one entangled particle reveals information about the other, making any attempt to intercept an encoded message detectable.

The PRC holds its most consequential and durable lead in developing and building encrypted communications technologies that use quantum entanglement. In the last decade, it has built out an extensive network connecting government offices, financial institutions, and research facilities, and tested satellite quantum communication links between Beijing and South Africa (China Brief, May 15). No Western country operates anything comparable.

Interference

The various states of a particle in superposition can interfere with each other. This interference can be manipulated to effect quantum states and perform computational tasks. Engineering the interference of qubits at quantum gates (the fundamental operations of quantum computers) can amplify certain outcomes and suppress others. This forms the basis of many quantum algorithms that enable incredibly fast computation.

The measure of how precisely a quantum processor performs interference is called gate fidelity. State-of-the-art processors operate at above 99.9 percent accuracy. The United States holds a measurable lead in this area, but one that is narrowing.

Quantum Error Correction

The effective operation of quantum algorithms requires quantum error correction (QEC) to prevent sources of noise impacting their outputs. QEC works by encoding information across multiple qubits—effectively adding a layer of redundancy.

The critical test is whether adding more error-correcting qubits reduces the overall error rate or just introduces more noise of its own. Effective error correction differentiates quantum computers that have the potential to be deployed at scale from those that can only function as lab demonstrations. In the United States, Google’s Willow processor crossed this threshold in December 2024. In the PRC, the Zuchongzhi 3.2 processor became the second system to do so 12 months later (Chinese Academy of Sciences, December 24, 2025). The Chinese processor is less efficient than Google’s but its simpler hardware approach could make it easier to scale.

This technology is still in its relative infancy. Today’s best machines have roughly 100 physical qubits working in concert. For context, breaking the encryption standard that secures most internet traffic would require millions. Both countries have now cleared the engineering hurdle that proves the basic approach works, and a U.S.–PRC capability gap that looked categorical in early 2025 is now in question.

Conclusion

The quantum sector is relatively immature, making projections based on current capabilities unwise (ChinaTalk, April 29). A reliable picture of current competitive dynamics assesses the current error correction threshold, the accuracy rate of quantum computation, and the state of deployed quantum communications infrastructure. The United States leads in computational benchmarks such as gate accuracy, error suppression depth, and software maturity. The PRC currently leads on security, with groundbreaking progress in secure communications networks.

The race to produce quantum technologies that could meaningfully impact the strategic balance between the United States and the PRC has measurably narrowed in the past 12 months. Experts do not expect a quantum computer to break public-key encryption within the next year or in the immediate future (GRI, March 9). PRC programs building quantum computers with that eventual capability, however, are moving faster than most Western policy assessments have credited.

Notes

[1] A separate Qiushi article praises the country’s capturing of over half of the world’s quantum communications patents and its impressive quantum communication network, and Xinhua now has a dedicated website for Quantum coverage (Qiushi, May 31; Xinhua Quantum, accessed May 9). A recent South China Morning Post (SCMP) editorial, meanwhile, ran with the headline “China is no longer a follower in the race for quantum supremacy” (SCMP, December 12, 2025).

PRC Pulls Ahead in Quantum Communications Security - Jamestown